After seeing the ESPN.com predictions for this year it seems like one of the trendy picks is to pick the Atlanta Braves in the National League. I’m not going to say that the Atlanta Braves won’t or can’t win the National League but it seems odd to me that they are liked so well. The Atlanta Braves finished only third last season and, on paper, they got worse. Although granted they probably underachieved last season also. There are plenty of reasons to not like the Atlanta Braves though so they are going to have to prove a lot. Here are the reasons I don’t think the Atlanta Braves can win the National League East.
Chipper Jones – If you go back to last year and look at Chipper Jones you’ll see that he actually had a very high batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage. He’s still hitting great and probably would’ve been a MVP candidate if he hadn’t missed 30 games. A lot of people are saying “If Chipper Jones plays 150 games he can be the MVP.” There’s just one problem, “if.” And that’s a big “if.” “If Chipper Jones plays 150 games” hasn’t happened since 2003.
Starting Pitching – Those picking the Atlanta Braves seem to think they have the best starting pitching in the National League. They’ll certainly be good, but I’m not sure they are that good. First of all John Smoltz started the season on the DL and while it’s not a major injury, any time your 40 year old ace is on the DL you have think a little bit more, “is he showing his age?” Tom Glavine on other hand is absolutely showing his age. Last season Tom Glavine had his third fewest number of wins and second higest ERA since 1989. Mike Hampton has looked great in spring training, but spring training means squat. Ultimately we’re talking about a pitcher that has pitched 12 games in three seasons.
Relief Pitching - I’ve heard in the last several weeks that the Atlanta Braves are looking to make a trade because their relief pitching is soooo deep. Okay, maybe they have a lot of middle relievers that could be valuable but they still don’t have a closer. Their current closer, Rafael Soriano, only has 13 saves in 22 opportunities in his career. Some will point out Mike Gonzalez is coming back this season but he’s never played an entire season as a closer. What good is their great middle relief if the closer is going to constantly be giving up the lead in the ninth? In fact, the Braves lost their opener last season on a ninth inning homerun. That could happen a lot this season.
Shortstop – There are people that know a lot more about baseball than me saying that the Braves’ new shortstop Yunel Escobar is going to be a stud so who am I to argue with them. But people are expecting way too much right away. Guys like Ryan Bruan and Ryan Howard have made people think that “sure thing” prospects are All-Stars right away but they are actually in the minority, not the majority. There are talented prospects every week coming up to the Major Leagues and falling flat on their face. Edgar Renteria batted .332 last season and was on his way to his third straight 100 run/70 RBI season before getting injured. Escobar isn’t going to be that good in his first season. That position is a downgrade in a division that has Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and the reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins at that position on other teams.
Center Field – I know the popular belief is that Andruw Jones is overrated and he is. He’s gotten worse offensively, he’s gotten worst defensively, he’s overpaid, he strikes out a lot. There are a lot negatives. But Mark Kotsay? That is your replacement for Andruw Jones? Seriously? Even at Jones’ reduced play Kotsay is only about the tenth the player that Andruw Jones is. That’s another downgrade at a very important position.
Leadoff – The Braves are going to start this season with Kelly Johnson leading off and Yunel Escobar batting second? Wow. So basically Chipper Jones is going to have to hit about 80 solo homeruns to get to 120 RBI. Seriously though, how is Chipper Jones, even if he plays 150 games, supposed to be an MVP candidate when the three batters in front of him are the pitcher, a scrub and a second year player with very little experience. Actually, the starting rotation are pretty good hitters. Chipper will probably get more chances to knock them in than Kelly Johnson.